Question

Has anyone played with stock options? I’m very bullish on Tesla and predict they will double in a year. There’s an option for $1600 more than 2 years out I’m considering. I’ve never done stock options. I like the idea of limited downside. If it hits $1600 in a year (off a 2 year contract) is the upside worth it? Thoughts? (I understand this is gambling and not investing).  

Answer 1

Remember that options are priced so you lose money over time is you're only long. Treat it exactly as a casino and you'll be fine

Answer 2

I trade them. I wouldn't risk more than you're willing to lose.  

Answer 3

I bought Tesla stock on cash app

Answer 4

Yeah I might dabble. We’ll see. Only a small amount I’m okay losing.  

Answer 5

I just have no clue what the upside could look like. So will play and see. Hopefully some upside lol

Answer 6

Well it's roughly $60 per share now, so are you willing to lose 6k? It would need to be over 1660 to break even

Answer 7

If you've never done options and you have the premium to lose, you can try it. You can always come out of the option early if you see it losing more than you want or gaining more than expected. Generally option traders have rules.  

Answer 8

Be super careful these are headwinds that will absolutely effect Tesla’s profitability it’s just a matter of by how much 1. Their federal tax credit has expired all other car companies can basically give a $7500 discount on their EVs except for GM who’s credits have also expired 2. Tesla makes the most profit from premium models the S and X. This year many premium EVs will eat the sales of these now outdated models Porsche Taycan, Ford Mustang, Audi Etron, Hummer, Jaguar Ipace just to name the big companies as well as independents like Rivian, NIO ect all looking to swipe premium sales. 3. Be warned of the numbers take a good look at how Tesla prints numbers they do not include warranty claims and have been accused many times of cooking the books. All other manufacturers include warranty. Many many executive have left their team in the past two years from the accounting department where there is smoke there is usually fire. 4. Car sales across the board seem to be falling from all manufactures this is a warning sign of the economy but also people are driving cars for longer. Cars are in general much better made these days. 5. They are way behind in AI technology GM, Waymo, Argo just to name a few are way more advanced in AI tech 6. Corona virus is a real threat to expansion plans in China they say car sales have dropped 95% already. Not to mention supply chain problems for all manufacturers. FYI I wouldn’t dare short Tesla so I’m not a big bear on them as I think the market is completely illogical on their valuation of Tesla products. However you could get your faced ripped off trying to call this company. As another said swing trade them for safety. Way less risky!  

Comments

@ditmore ah my friend, on many points here we disagree. #5 the most I disagree. But time will prove one of us right. I urge you to take a closer look at everything. There’s a reason they are #2 car company by market cap, and it’s not fraud or lack of technology. It’s because it’s the future and they are significantly ahead on battery technology and autonomous driving technology. Solar still part of business and expanding giga factories like crazy while GM is closing plants (google it). I recognize I can’t predict stock price in future so appreciate that warning but it’s a gamble I’m contemplating taking with a smaller amount. But I do suggest buying some stock if you have a 5 year time horizon. I’d be willing to best it 100% doubles within 5 years. That’s a guarantee in my mind and would make that bet with you right now!  

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@ditmore in April they will have battery investors day, definitely tune in!  

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Notice where Tesla sits in Europe? This is just one case in France but these are real numbers Tesla sits 17th in sales there is plenty of other cheaper competition in the EV market selling much higher quality cars. Question did you call Tesla? They literally lost $200 in a week. Just wait until the next numbers come out Q1 might be floating but Q2 will be awful. The appetite for the model 3 is already disappearing which is why they are trying to march the Y out as soon as possible. Also you didn’t argue any points you just said well they are number 2 for market cap. This to me is a very good reason not to buy them. They sell less than 2% of world vehicle but the Tesla faithful have over inflated the stock price. This is a company to short not call.  

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@ditmore they are down $144 not $200. The entire market is down due to corona virus, has nothing to do with the business, there’s been no new news. Arguing with you on your points would be a waste of time, we’ll just have to refer back to this post in 2 years and see where we are at. I have not made the call yet, planning to make it early to mid-March once corona virus news (hopefully) calms down. I think it will be a good time to buy the call then. Probably still have a price between $750-800 I’m guessing. Getting the cash into the account to be ready as I needed a new account for my first call. I am looking forward to this call and will share the outcome with you either way closer to expiration date.  

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But check out on YouTube the following and they’ll argue against your points for me: Channels: Tesla Daily, HyperChange

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@ditmore dude - what you trying to pull here. this is from Jan 2019. Tesla Model 3 was barely out. Let me show you how it’s actually doing.  

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The article above is a better one. Note model s and x (the most profitable cars) sold just 10, 000 units. Second note VW will likely sell 230, 000 EVs and over take Tesla in 2020. Whilst also selling 10x that amount in regular petrol engines.  

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No worries - but definitely check out those YouTube channels if you are interested in either direction, they make great points. No one can predict the future and my call interest is strictly a bet as I’ll gamble once and awhile. But once I pull the trigger on it I’ll try and remember to let you know here and see where it goes. It’s a gamble so no pride here on winning or losing.  

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To think that the big manufacturers can not produce electric vehicles is nonsense. Couple that with the fact that they are way way behind in AI tech. And even just yesterday the NTSB criticized Tesla’s “lack of system safeguards” and rushing out the technology before it was safe to do so in the deaths of 3 people directly attributed to their Self driving technology or lack of.  

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I mentioned Corona Virus as one of the reasons not to call that came true now watch and see what happens with the others. I tried not to post anything that was opinion and tried to keep it factual as actual problems they will need to overcome rather than just an opinion that they are over priced. FYI I put all my 401k and retirement into cash on the 20th. I am short everything right now. Tesla is no exception but I think tech stocks will suffer exponentially compared to others. So far I’ve watched the market blow off a ton of value whilst maintaining all my gains on the year. I will buy back in as soon as I feel like this rediculously overvalued market has come to a bottom. I will probably get that exact point wrong but for now I’m ok with sitting on the sidelines getting 2% for my money that risking it in this climate

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@ditmore good call.  

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@ditmore I now have the funds available and ready to go. But seeing the volatility I’m waiting to see if there is another dip into the $600s. If not I may hold off pulling the trigger. If it gets down to ~$650 again, might be a go.  

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@flinn good luck, your a braver man than me!