For me, the main point while switching, testing the new theme would be to check if all urls are still working the same. Then I would check the main things like title, h-tags, content, if it stays the same. The html/css boilerplate should be not so important, but the position of content in the code is. So, in the end - there's 99% probability of seo positions fluctuation. Expert would check the points described above and run Screaming frog on the old vs new template. Would compare the speeds. And he would be able to predict some results. But conversions are another thing, which nobody can predict :) It could actually improve rankings sometimes, because of the new freshness, changes on the site :)